Normal monsoon across country likely

Normal monsoon across country likely

The 2017 southwest monsoon season saw below-normal rainfall at 95 percent of the LPA, against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of normal rainfall at 98 percent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 percent. India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall past year - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent).

Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 percent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 percent.

A normal south-west monsoon bodes well for the Indian economy and is likely to boost rural demand and alleviate farm distress.

The top IMD official said there was "very less probability" of a deficient Monsoon this year, and added that the date of onset of Monsoon will be declared in the middle of the month of May. The IMD categorises rainfall in the 96 per cent to 104 per cent LPA range as normal while the rain immediately below that, it is considered below normal.


However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said.

The IMD issues its first monsoon forecast in April and updates it in June. The country receives some 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the four-month Monsoon season. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.

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